Conventional economics invokes the idea of a race between our limited means and our unlimited wants. Let’s run faster and spend more! But what if we opt out of that race, finding ways to get more satisfaction without consuming more? On this site I explore these ideas, plus themes from popular culture and other random thoughts.
Here’s a set of twenty videos I did for my econometrics students. I hope you’ll find them useful or even enjoy them.
Confession: I am an econometric impostor. I have published papers with econometric findings for more than 40 years now. Some of them have attracted tens, if not dozens, of readers. But I never have been an econometrics hawk. All along, I just kept trying things and looking up references until I figured things out. As a result, about a fourth of what I’m about to show you is wrong — I just don’t know which fourth.
And yet, it’s useful, because as an econometric impostor I developed a lot of intuition.
This is “hit and run” by analogy to baseball — on that play, the batter swings at everything and the runner gets a fast start. (Ask a baseball fan if you’re interested.) I modestly think you can get a lot of econometric intuition by watching these videos. Email me when you find mistakes and I’ll start a list.
I especially recommend these if your significant other is an economist and you just don’t understand that person! Watch these and you’ll have everything you need to keep the conversation going.
If you find these unhelpful, you get all of your money back!
1. Excel regression and a trap. Yes, you can do regression analysis in lowly Excel! . . . but here’s a trap that one beginning student fell into.
2. Deviation notation is not a big deal, but the Fisher Equation is a great thing to know about and it provides a nice illustration.
3. What’s more accurate, a watch that’s always a minute off or a watch that’s stopped? Here’s a new take on that old folk riddle.
4. There are many choices out there for statistical packages, but here are a few that stand out. Find out why there’s a big buzz about R.
5. If you drive a new car off the lot, you lose a lot of value — you’ve heard that, right? See what the t-test can tell us about new and used cars.
6. The Gauss-Markov Theorem is important in econometrics. See why in this video.
7. Where does R-squared come from? Here’s an answer that helps point out why this statistic is so often consulted.
8. Why did the invention of cable TV and the videocassette recorder come to be known as “the video revolution”? These inventions foreshadowed our media landscape today, and media historians can learn from the econometrics of the revolution.
9. Can you interpret β in a regression equation? Can you paint by numbers? What do these questions have to do with each other?
10. Multicollinearity can mess up your estimates; it can be cured; but sometimes the cure is worse than the illness.
11. How could nonlinearity be “cheap”? The Phillips Curve from macroeconomics provides an example. Hint: This is a trick that’s way easier than true nonlinearity.
12. An interaction term can help you sort out the sources of discrimination in the labor market. Find out how.
13. Testing for structural change can be done a lot of different ways. Find out how, and also find out why “This Time It’s Different” may be the most dangerous words ever for individual investors.
14. The Koyck Lag is a nifty piece of math that, in this video, helps illuminate the effects of threatened price controls on research and development in the pharmaceutical industry.
15. Specification error is a serious problem in econometrics and this is a really compact treatment.
16. Generalized Least Squares can fix the problem of autocorrelated errors, but there’s a big “if.” Find out why fixing it might be worse than leaving it alone.
17. And Generalized Least Squares can also fix problems with heteroskedastic errors but — you guessed it! — it might be better to leave it alone.
18. Did class and gender influence who survived the sinking of the Titanic? A logit model helps us get answers.
19. Simultaneity bias is bad and it’s everywhere! Here are some of the reasons why.
20. OK, time for blind spots — what are the biggest blind spots in the sort of econometrics taught at the undergraduate level? Here are my candidates: the McCloskey reservation and the Taleb reservation. (Hint: Are there any swans that are black?)
Note: This is something I wrote for my high school class’s 50-year reunion page:
Everybody has a story. Here’s mine: Fifty years ago this month, I left Berry High School for Auburn University intent on becoming an engineer and not thinking much about the whole marriage thing. Ten years later, I was a married economics professor after five crazy years in the ethic of journalism (four as a major, one as a working reporter). Life changed a lot faster back then.
In all of those changes, I’m now pretty confident that journalism brought out the worst in me and economics, by the grace of God, has brought out the best in me. Most of this was from the influence of two people:
- My graduate school girlfriend Jane, now my wife of 43 years, who has made me kinder and gentler – not by nagging, but by the everyday living of life.
- My mentor Professor Kenneth Elzinga at U.Va., who modeled what it was like to care deeply for students, care deeply for the field of economics, and view life as a calling. I can’t describe his influence in words, but this video helps explain why he’s a legend at U.Va.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXMTk4MBTqI .
And to think I had the opportunity to study under him, teach alongside him, do research with him in antitrust economics, and be in a Bible study with him. Yes, there are Jesus-followers in the universities and in the field of economics – but to the extent that we succeed, students of all faiths will be glad to have been in our classes because of our commitment to them and our respect for the varied faith traditions that students bring to their college years.
Many of us can claim that we are blessed, and I do, but that doesn’t mean the absence of sadness. It’s been years now, but I still feel the loss of our friend and Berry classmate Melanie Albright ’70. Some of you knew my brother Alan Wood, Berry Class of ’68, whom we lost to cancer at the age of 67. I miss him keenly. Time being what it is, there are more than a few other graduates from our time that have passed on also. We honor their memory by carrying on.
And, to all my Alabama friends from years past: You probably wouldn’t imagine how I value memories and friendships from our time together, because of the years and miles between us. I left for Virginia after wrapping up at Auburn and have not been back much. But for the record: I value all of you and I hope life has been kind to you.
Fifty years out, I wish all of you the best.
Now with Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker, the nine Star Wars films are complete. I was in the theater for the first film with my girlfriend about 43 years ago. A lot has happened in my life (that girlfriend is now my wife of 42 years), and . . . I’m a fan. I truly enjoyed what Star Wars did for filmmaking. I’m not a big-time movie-goer, but Star Wars will always get me to the theater.
Still, after leaving the theater this time I felt mostly relief and exhaustion — relief that the producers ended it with one that didn’t stink up the theater, and exhaustion because they have more than fully exploited that Star Wars universe. Taking the whole series in perspective (and from re-watching the first six at home), here are my impressions:
Star Wars I: The Phantom Menace. On seeing it again, the best part was the opening fanfare and crawl. “The franchise will live!” I thought, after Star Wars was absent from theaters from 1983 until 1999’s Star Wars I premiere . . . and everything was downhill from there.
Star Wars II: Attack of the Clones. Now after seeing it again, my favorite scene is the closing: Anakin and Padme’s wedding, with C3PO and R2D2 as witnesses. Why my favorite? Because the music foreshadows the tragedy and, more importantly, the bride and groom speak no words. Thus they save us from more dialogue like the earlier: “Now that I’m with you again, I’m in agony.”
Star Wars III: Revenge of the Sith. Now we’re getting somewhere. It’s not so good, but at least we find out why Darth Vader turned out to be the baddest guy in the galaxy. The best scenes are the ones that link him to Star Wars IV.
Star Wars IV: A New Hope. Woohoo! Somebody just opened the creative windows in a stuffy oppressive room (so to speak), and a fresh breeze is blowing in. What else from 1977 holds up so well as this movie?
Star Wars V: The Empire Strikes Back. Another great film, in which a running time of just over two hours gets us action, romance, Yoda and the big reveal: Darth Vader is Luke’s father! (I was one of the three people in a packed Birmingham, Alabama, theater who did not see that coming.) And the scene still shocks me on the Blu-Ray replay, even though I know every line.
Star Wars VI: Return of the Jedi. Nice film to wrap up the Darth Vader story line. The franchise is getting a little tired by now, but seeing the characters again makes it worthwhile. The scene where Luke tells Leia she’s his sister, the pyre on which Vader’s body burns, and the celebrations at the end wrap things up nicely. (Hey, I didn’t know somebody would save the melted face helmet from the pyre.)
I’m a fan through and through, so I can only quibble a little with the franchise on this point: The bad guys have a fatal over-reliance on A Big Destructive Space Technology That Has a Key Weakness to be Exploited by a Few Inside Attackers and a Few Bold Fighter Pilots.
Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens. And you know what? The bad guys change their name from the Empire to the First Order but they still didn’t learn their lesson about A Big Destructive Space Technology That Has a Key Weakness to be Exploited by a Few Inside Attackers and a Few Bold Fighter Pilots. This time the space station is actually an entire planet but it’s just as vulnerable. The inability of the villains to learn and adapt puts them way below the level of the Borg (different universe, I know).
All that made Star Wars VII for me a competent sequel and no more. (Better a competent sequel than three incompetent prequels, you think?) And because I’m a Star Wars fan, a competent sequel was good enough. I loved it! – seeing the old characters aged about 38 Earth years, and meeting Finn and Rey.
Star Wars VIII: The Last Jedi. I’ll just say that after seeing VIII, I then liked VII as more than a competent sequel, because it nicely set up Finn and Rey for VIII. To me, “The Last Jedi” redeemed “The Force Awakens” in much the same way that “Revenge of the Sith” redeemed “Attack of the Clones.” But in this film, clearly the franchise is getting old. There was no time in this movie that in the theater I told myself “Wow, I didn’t expect that!” Contrast that with the original Star Wars IV (1977), which surprised and delighted at every turn.
Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker. On this one I’ll leave the big reviews to others and just sink down in relief and exhaustion. Yes, I’m relieved that the franchise’s new owners didn’t totally stink up the theater with this one. But as I walked out of the theater, I realized that I have set the bar very low — “just get it over with.” I’m still a fan. I’ll go to anything Star Wars. But:
- The franchise is getting old. Lightsaber battles can’t do very much that’s creative.
- The franchise is getting old. Yet another Big Destructive Space Technology That Has a Key Weakness to be Exploited by a Few Inside Attackers. An empire that has faster-than-light propulsion never invented GPS for navigation? Come on!
- The franchise is getting old. The complexity of the space battle scenes has gotten out of hand — to the point that it interferes with the story-telling. Example: The opening scene of “A New Hope” still looks great, 40 years later. A huge Star Destroyer is going by overhead, firing on Princess Leia’s much smaller ship. The scene had to be simple because it’s all that the limited technology of the time would allow, but it works better than the more complicated battles now technically possible.
- The franchise is getting old. There cannot now be a new introduction of a villain as bad as Darth Vader in “A New Hope.” Kylo Ren is a weak reflection of Vader, despite Adam Driver’s excellent portrayal of the character. (Did I mention that I think the franchise is getting old?)
- Carrie Fisher as Leia (posthumously) and Mark Hamill as Luke finally line up nicely with their characters, as written. In the original trilogy they were young and inexperienced actors, but that played nicely into the impossible situations their characters faced. All these years later, Fisher had aged to become a thoughtful general rather than a princess with an attitude. Hamill played the embittered former hero well before mellowing out at the end. Neither actor was a superstar, but the writing and direction were just right for them and their characters.
Finally, an economic meta-point. (Well, I’m an economist; what did you expect?) The original Star Wars of 1977 was produced by Hollywood’s rebels — a merry band defying convention. Star Wars IX was produced by the Galactic Empire, or its modern day equivalent: a crushing conglomerate with loads of intellectual property and no sense of humor. Economic freedom, “you’re my only hope” for resisting the Mouse’s dominance, and your shields are failing.
Effective July 1, 2019, I became the department head in economics at James Madison University. This is my second term of service in this job — but when I did it before, I was Luke Skywalker and now I’m Obi-Wan Kenobi (“or Yoda!” says my Star Wars analogy-checker). Anyway, in my Obi-Wan role I’m looking forward to helping all the department faculty be the best they can be, with a special emphasis on those launching their academic careers. And, on the student side, I’m starting a few initiatives to try to help students in our department get the classes they need. Let’s make it happen!
In spring 2019 I’m teaching the macro principles class for the first time in a few years — and I’m looking forward to it. I’m a regular participant in our department’s weekly macro seminar and I have some new material and in-class tricks to try out. One important note at the start: Macroeconomics is harder than you’d think if you spend much time on social media. There, people get lots of agreement when they say the case is “overwhelming” for one macro policy and there’s “no evidence” for another. Trust me, on all of the major controversies, from the minimum wage to monetary policy, there are no overwhelming cases or totally unsupported positions. With the framework of introductory macroeconomics, though, you can make sense of the competing arguments and come to a reasoned judgment. Here we go!
“Don’t mix business and pleasure,” says the old proverb, but this vacation worked out well with both — a trip to Lambeau Field for a professional conference with lots of fun and sightseeing with my family too. (Trust me, the actual body of water Green Bay is big, and it’s just a bay on Lake Michigan with is really big! And the town Green Bay is delightful, though very much centered on the Packers. You can see Lambeau Field from all over town and navigate by the street that runs right by — Lombardi Street, of course.) I could have acted dignified on conference day, I suppose, but I went around instead during free time taking pictures with classic Packers art.
- Great regional jet service through our own community airport, the Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport.
- Dinner at a restaurant that serves elk and other wild game.
- A hotel with plumbing so advanced, the three-head shower has an electronic control panel.
- Opening authors’ meeting for a book I’m writing together with three good friends.
Here I am below with Coach Lombardi:
Update: Yes, in 2019 I went to that conference again and had a great time again — check this out: https://www.facebook.com/EconEpisodes
I love to teach using Socratic dialogue, with a few extra twists thrown in. This video explains:
When I teach econometrics it’s fun (really!), but there’s a lot of power in econometrics for good or ill. Econometrics can be used honestly to study and understand the material world (my favorite use) or dishonestly to advance the agendas of corrupt politicians, executives and others. At one point the practice of econometrics got so bad that a leading practitioner wrote an article, “Let’s Take the Con Out of Econometrics.” That’s the agenda in my class — no con job, just deliberately seeking the best that econometrics has to offer.
- I like the Star Wars universe, so I’ll happily go there. Yes, I’m a fan.
- In Rogue One, nothing surprised me. Of course, the overall plot line was well known, since in Star Wars IV: A New Hope [SPOILER ALERT!] we see that the rebels do successfully get the plans to the Death Star and Luke blows it up. But more than that, even at the micro level every scene was highly predictable (blaster battle, covert mission, blaster battle . . . you get the picture).
- Jyn Erso was a great character, well-played by Felicity Jones (a Star Wars lead being a woman without the film self-consciously pointing out, “hey, look, our lead is female!”)
- I liked the back story about why the Death Star was so vulnerable to a lucky hit by Luke — the conscientious act of a scientist who had been forced to help the evil Empire.
- When Jyn Erso and Cassian Andor met their end — the end of any rebel on an impossible mission — we got a fading into yellow light instead of a tender farewell. Not only was it easier on the fan base; it also leaves open the possibility that we’ll see Jyn again. As uproxx.com says, “Nothing is impossible when you are one with the Force and the Force is with you.”
And finally, as usual I have mixed feelings about the Force. It’s a neat storytelling device, but in our world there is a stronger force and a deeper magic: “There is no greater love than to lay down one’s life for one’s friends.” (John 15:13, New Living Translation)